Will the grain tariff ever get settled? This has been the long standing question. Unfortunately the longer we go without a solution the less impact it will have on the market. Soybean price outlook continues to look bleak. We have ample world supply numbers and usage appears to be slowing. I am thinking that $8.50 cash, new crop may look like a big number come harvest. It may not be nine dollars, but it is a place to start. It would appear the next year or two we have to look at survival rather than making $50 an acre.
Corn stocks are tighter than soybeans. We can see this in the basis. Corn can go up from here. We have to remember that the wheat and soybean markets may hold us back from making a big rally in corn. Again, I think $3.75 cash corn for harvest looks to be a good place to start.
The growing season hasn’t really started yet but we are looking at plenty of moisture for the season. It would be hard to think of a drought this summer, but with Mother Nature anything can happen. One thing that doesn’t change from year to year is that the weather will have the last say in which direction our prices go. Even when the tariffs get settled we will still look at our supply and demand balance sheet which right now looks full.
We wish everyone a safe spring!